Introduction
The Port of Mombasa is one of the largest and busiest in the East and Central African region, providing direct connectivity to over 80 Ports worldwide. It is linked to a vast hinterland comprising Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, Northern Tanzania, South Sudan, Somalia and Ethiopia connected through a multi-modal transport system.[1] It is the second largest in Africa in terms of tonnage and containers handled after the Port of Durban in South Africa.[2] In 2024 alone, the port handled over 41.1 million tonnes of cargo, a 14.1 per cent increase from 35.98 million tonnes in 2023.[3] Beyond its logistical importance, the port contributes significantly to Kenya’s economy, with a World Bank study estimating that it accounts for nearly 10% of the national GDP and handles over 95% of the country’s international trade.[4] Yet, the port is exposed to climate-related risks, including flooding, coastal erosion, extreme heat, and sea-level rise. These threaten not only physical infrastructure but also operational efficiency, worker safety, and economic stability.
Recognizing these growing vulnerabilities, the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA), the port operator, has adopted a Green Port Policy (2024–2028)[5] to embed environmental stewardship and climate resilience into all aspects of port operations and management. In support of its vision to strengthen seaports’ resilience amid accelerating climate risks, the African Group of Negotiators Expert Support (AGNES) piloted the Resilience4Ports (R4P): Port Decision Makers’ Guide to Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) through a high-level Climate Risk Screening at the Port of Mombasa, ahead of the guide’s anticipated debut at COP30 in Belém, Brazil. This screening sought to identify key climate hazards and risks, evaluate exposure and vulnerability, and adaptation measures in place to strengthen the port’s long-term operational and infrastructural resilience.
Methodology
The climate risk screening exercise employed a structured, multi-step approach that integrated climate data analysis and modelling, field validation, and participatory risk screening. The process was initiated with the acquisition of localized, high-resolution climate data and projections from Jupiter Intelligence, an industry leader in physical climate risk analytics. These projections provided insights into future climate trends at the port, including expected changes in temperature, sea-level rise, rainfall variability, and the frequency of extreme weather events, all projected up to the year 2050.
Following this, the AGNES undertook an analysis of the projected scenarios, with a focus on key hazards relevant to port operations which included coastal flooding, storm surges, sea-level rise, heatwaves, coastal erosion, and ocean acidification. This desktop assessment helped to identify the intensity of climate hazards, risks and impacts based on scientific modelling. To complement climate modeling and ensure contextual relevance, a field validation exercise was conducted from October 22nd to 27th, 2025, at the Port of Mombasa.
This ground-truthing exercise involved in-depth consultations with key stakeholders including the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA), Kenya Maritime Authority (KMA), Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute (KMFRI), and a representative of the port workers. These participatory engagements offered perspectives on the frequency, severity, and operational disruptions caused by climate hazards, helping to bridge scientific data with lived experiences and institutional knowledge. A structured screening using the Resilience4Ports (R4P) methodology was conducted to assess the port’s vulnerability to climate risks and evaluate each hazard by its likelihood, exposure, and asset vulnerability.
Results and Findings
Observed Climate Hazards and Risks
The climate risk screening revealed that Mombasa Port faces multiple, interrelated climate hazards that, if left unaddressed, could disrupt operations, damage infrastructure, and threaten the livelihoods of communities reliant on the port economy. The hazards, ranging from acute (short-term) to chronic (long-term), lead to diverse impacts, each presenting unique challenges to the port’s resilience. Acute hazard, such as flooding, is already frequent disruptions at the port. Between 2020 and 2023, flooding caused by heavy rainfall inundated key areas like container yards and internal access roads. Strong winds and storm surges lead to violent waves, which have become increasingly frequent and occasionally disrupt operations. Projections indicate that rainfall is expected to increase, particularly under high-emission scenarios (see Figure 1), which forecasts a rise in total water precipitation, further amplifying the flooding risk at the port.
In addition to acute hazards, the port also faces chronic hazards such as sea-level rise, ocean acidification, and coastal erosion. Sea levels have been rising at a rate of approximately 0.3 mm per year, with projections indicating this trend will continue, particularly under high-emission scenarios (see Figure 1). Upstream climate variability, including extreme rainfall events, is also intensifying hazards like flooding and coastal erosion, further escalating the risks faced by the port. Studies have also shown that Marine Heat Waves (MHWs) in the western Indian Ocean region have increased at a rate of 1.2–1.5 events over the past few decades.[6] Extreme heat was identified as a recurring hazard, particularly during the February-March period, when temperatures rise significantly due to the overhead sun. This is further compounded by the rise in marine temperatures, which contributes to more frequent marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and disruptions to marine ecosystems. Projections indicate that marine temperatures will continue to rise, particularly under high-emission scenarios (see Figure 2), exacerbating these risks. As ocean temperatures increase, the pressure on the marine ecosystems supporting the port will intensify, emphasizing the urgent need for enhanced adaptation measures to address these long-term impacts on port operations.
Figure 1: Comparison of changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise and water stress for short, medium and long periods of the year and for low- mid and high-emission scenario
Figure 2: Comparison of Change in air, marine water temperature for the short, medium and long period of the year and for low- mid and high-emission scenario
Description of Impacts on Mombasa Port
The climate hazards and risks identified for the Port of Mombasa have both direct and indirect impacts on port infrastructure, operations, and surrounding communities. Flooding and strong winds frequently disrupt vessel handling and cargo operations, causing delays in cargo processing, extended vessel turnaround times, and the need for extensive infrastructure repairs, resulting in financial losses. Flooding exacerbates coastal erosion and causes physical damage to key infrastructure such as quays, container storage yards, and internal roads. This, in turn, disrupts port operations, increases maintenance costs, and compromises port efficiency. Workers at the port, especially those operating in exposed areas such as berths, face heightened health risks, such respiratory illnesses, caused by dispersion of polluted air around the port area. Moreover, casual workers such as vendors experience frequent livelihood disruptions as operational delays and flooding contribute to job insecurity and unpredictable income streams. These challenges disproportionately affect such vulnerable groups who rely on the port ecosystem.
Chronic climate risks, such as sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and extreme heat, pose long-term challenges to infrastructure and operations. Sea-level rise, although gradual, is expected to exacerbate coastal erosion and lead to the destabilization of port infrastructure, especially in low-lying areas. Extreme heat, particularly during the February-March period, poses health risks to workers in exposed areas like berths and cargo zones, while also affecting productivity due to heat stress. Rising marine temperatures and ocean acidification are contributing to corrosion of port infrastructure, including quay walls and vessels, which adds to long-term maintenance costs and reduces asset lifespans. These chronic risks, though slower to manifest, underscore the urgent need for sustained adaptation efforts to protect port operations and workers from escalating climate impacts.
Status of Vulnerability and Exposure of the Port
A risk scoring methodology was used to assess the vulnerability and exposure of the port to climate hazards and evaluate each hazard based on its likelihood, asset vulnerability, and exposure. The likelihood of each hazard was scored on a scale from 1 to 5, ranging from “rare” to “almost certain,” while asset vulnerability was rated from 1 to 5, from “very low” to “very high.” Exposure was considered binary, with assets being either exposed or not exposed. The results indicate that flooding and sea-level rise pose the most immediate and severe threats to the port, with both hazards having a high likelihood and very high vulnerability of port infrastructure, leading to the highest risk scores. Coastal erosion, while a more gradual concern, also presents significant risks to the port’s shoreline stability, with high likelihood and vulnerability to infrastructure. Strong winds, storm surges, and extreme heat were identified as ongoing hazards that disrupt operations and impact worker health, resulting in moderate risk scores. While marine heatwaves and ocean acidification are less immediately disruptive, they are emerging risks with long-term consequences for marine ecosystems and biodiversity, which are essential to port activities. These findings emphasize the need for targeted adaptation measures to address the most critical risks, as outlined in Table 1, which details the varying levels of threat posed by each hazard based on its likelihood and vulnerability.
| Climate Hazard | Likelihood | Asset Vulnerability | Risk Score |
| Ocean Acidification | Moderate (3) | Medium (3) | 9 |
| Marine Heatwaves | Moderate (3) | Medium (3) | 9 |
| Strong Winds / Storm Surges | Almost Certain (5) | Medium (3) | 15 |
| Extreme Heat | Almost Certain (5) | Medium (3) | 15 |
| Coastal Erosion | Almost Certain (5) | High (4) | 20 |
| Flooding (Heavy Rainfall) | Almost Certain (5) | Very High (5) | 25 |
| Sea-Level Rise (SLR) | Almost Certain (5) | Very High (5) | 25 |
Table 1: Risk Matrix for Key Climate Hazards at Mombasa Port
Figure 3: Distribution of Climate Hazards Occurrence at the Ports of Mombasa, Kenya
Climate Adaptation Measures at the Port of Mombasa
The KPA has initiated several key adaptation initiatives through its Green Port Policy to address the impacts of climate hazards, protect port operations, and enhance the resilience of its infrastructure. Notable initiatives include:
| Climate Risk | Ongoing Adaptation Action | Additional Adaptation Options |
| Flooding | Mangrove Restoration: Enhances shoreline stability and reduces storm surge impacts. | – Improve drainage systems and elevate critical infrastructure – Construct protective flood barriers |
| Coastal Erosion | Eco-Terracing & Stone Pitching: Stabilizes vulnerable shorelines and controls runoff. | – Expand shoreline protection zones – Reinforce quay walls with erosion-resistant design |
| Extreme Heat | Tree Planting & Landscaping: Uses drought-resistant vegetation to create microclimate regulation. | – Install shaded rest areas – Integrate passive cooling in port structures |
| Strong Winds & Surges | Not yet addressed through physical interventions | – Deploy wind monitoring and early warning systems – Reinforce docking facilities |
| Ocean Acidification | Not yet addressed directly | – Monitor water chemistry and use corrosion-resistant materials in future upgrades |
Table 2: Climate Risks, Adaptation Measures and Options at the Port of Mombasa
Figure 4: Stone Pitching at the Port of Mombasa
Conclusion and Recommendations
The Port of Mombasa faces mounting climate-related risks, with flooding, coastal erosion, sea-level rise, and extreme heat emerging as the most pressing threats to its infrastructure, operations, and dependent communities. While the Kenya Ports Authority (KPA) has demonstrated leadership through its Green Port Policy and various sustainability initiatives, this preliminary screening underscores the need for a detailed climate risk assessment. Key vulnerabilities were identified in low-lying terminal areas, informal worker zones, and intermodal access routes, areas that are highly exposed to hazards and already experiencing the compounding effects of climate change. Moreover, the impacts of climate disruption are not limited to the port premises but extend to regional supply chains, adjacent communities, and the safety and livelihoods of workers. Therefore, strategic and coordinated adaptation planning is imperative.
To strengthen the climate resilience of the Mombasa Port and other seaports in Kenya, the following priority actions are recommended:
- Initiate a full Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) for Mombasa Port to identify risks, impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation options and investment needs.
- Expand the CRA to include hinterland port corridors and intermodal systems to ensure supply chain resilience beyond the port boundary.
- Initiate Climate Risk Screening and full CRA across all Kenyan seaports (e.g., Lamu) to support collective resilience planning, data sharing, and harmonized adaptation policies.
This case study is presented in the Port Decision Makers’ Guide to Climate Risk Assessment (CRA).
References
[1] KPA 2025 https://kpa.co.ke/Ports/PortOfMombasa
[2] Gekara, V and Chhetri, P 2013, ‘Upstream transport corridor inefficiencies and the implications for port performance: A case analysis of Mombasa Port and the Northern Corridor’, Maritime Policy and Management, pp. 1-15.
[3] KPA 2025 “KPA achieves a major milestone, surpassing 2 million TEUs” https://www.kpa.co.ke/Media/Read/2
[4] ICSM 2025 “Mombasa Port: Navigating Current Challenges and Embracing Technological Solutions” https://www.csm.tech/blog-details/mombasa-port-navigating-current-challenges-and-embracing-technological-solutions
[5] KPA Green Port Policy https://www.nairobiconvention.org/clearinghouse/sites/default/files/Kenya%20Ports%20Authority%20Green%20Port%20Policy_Sustainable%20Ports%20Authority%20Meeting%20Dar%202023.pdf
[6] JGR Ocean 2022 “Genesis and Trends in Marine Heatwaves Over the Tropical Indian Ocean and Their Interaction with the Indian Summer Monsoon” Available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017427
